Offshore Capitalist

Bear market rally nearing its end, says Barry Ritholz

Barry Ritholz, author of the best-selling book Bailout Nation, thinks the market moves of this year signify a typical bear market rally and there are more choppy waters approaching.

Speaking at the Citywire Fund Selector Forum on Wednesday evening, Ritholz, who is CEO and director of equity research at FusionIQ in NewYork, dismissed the idea that markets can be used as an economic forecaster.  ‘Markets are far less prescient than people give them credit for,’ he said.

Having studied 29 secular bear markets, Ritholz thinks there is a pattern which they generally follow and this time they are following the same formula. First, markets lose on average around 56% in nine months, then there is a rebound which typically lasts around 17 months and rises around 70%.

‘So we probably have about another 15-25% to go, then it will get dicey,’ he said.

via Bear market rally nearing its end, says Barry Ritholz | Fund Selector | Citywire.

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