Offshore Capitalist

IMF’s Regional Outlook Shows Asia Leading Global Recovery

Asia is leading the global recovery and the region’s contribution to global growth will continue to exceed that of other regions in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today in its latest Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific. The IMF revised upward its growth forecast for Asia to [...]

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Top 20 Holders Of Gold

World Official Gold Holdings March 2010
The World Gold Council publishes a monthly table of the gold reserves held by countries around the world.  Here’s the latest:

Additionally, the physically-backed SPDR Gold Shares ETF currently holds 1,159 tonnes, which places it as the world’s 6th largest holder, between France and China.

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A quick look at the gold chart

The current five year gold futures chart.
Click the pic to view full size.
Source.

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Ratings Firms’ Influence Under Fire

The ratings agencies played a substantial role in the 2008 financial crisis.  Now some criticize their actions in the Greek/European debt crisis…
An interesting article.. click the link at the bottom to see the full original.
WallStreetJournal:  Europeans took aim Wednesday at debt-rating agencies, accusing them of worsening the plight of financially-stretched governments such as Greece that [...]

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“Economic Pulse” Reports Explore Strength and Stability of Regional Property Markets

Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. today issued its global Economic Pulse reports for May 2010 which analyze global economic trends in the Americas, Europe, and Asia and the implications for business investment and commercial real estate activity. The reports show significant global economic improvement has taken hold during the past quarter despite volatility and disparate recoveries [...]

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World Economy Continues to Defy the Pessimists

Morningstar:  The recovery phase tends to be one of the longer phases of the cycle and this time should prove no different.
Against a backdrop of continuing concerns about rising government budget deficits, tougher financial regulation and the return of protectionism, global economic activity continues to come in stronger than expected. Indicators of global activity such [...]

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Africa to enjoy strong rebound: IMF

WASHINGTON — Sub-Saharan African will enjoy a strong recovery this year and next after the region fared much better than most developed countries during the global economic crisis, the IMF said on Wednesday.
The International Monetary Fund estimated that economic growth in the region would reach 4.7 percent this year and 5.9 percent in forecasts from [...]

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The top gold manager believes boom has years to run

BlackRock gold guru Evy Hambro believes central banks will power the gold price forward for years to come.
Hambro says the supply and demand fundamentals of the precious metal are supportive of the current $1,150 price after some of the biggest central banks in the world became net buyers again.
Hambro manages around $30 billion in assets [...]

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Global recovery better than expected – IMF

Transcript of a Press Briefing on the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook
Global recovery has evolved better than we expected. We now forecast global growth to reach 4.2 percent in 2010, which is an upward revision of .3 percent from our January forecast, and to reach 4.3 percent in 2011.
Alongside growth, global trade has also [...]

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Pound Rises Against Euro as Recovery Optimism Gathers Momentum

April 24 (Bloomberg) — The pound rose against the euro for the fifth week in six as data indicated the recovery from Britain’s worst recession on record is gathering momentum and the Bank of England may move to withdraw stimulus measures.
The pound also advanced against the Japanese yen as reports showed mortgage approvals rose more [...]

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Global financial leaders cheered by recovery signs

WASHINGTON — Despite a deepening Greek debt crisis, global financial leaders declared Friday that the world’s economy is recovering faster than expected from the worst recession in decades.
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the world’s 20 major economies credited the massive amounts of government stimulus that have been provided. Their joint statement did not [...]

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China currency move a matter for medium-term – IMF

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – China recognises the need to let its currency appreciate for the good of its domestic economy but the move will only come in the “medium term”, the International Monetary Fund’s Asia director said on Saturday.
IMF Asia Director Anoop Singh told Reuters that China and other export-focussed Asian countries have been compelled by [...]

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IMF: MENA Region Recovering with 4.5% Growth in 2010

The Middle East and North Africa region is growing out of its downturn at a good speed. Economic prospects across the region are quite diverse, shaped by different constellations of underlying forces, stated the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report “World Economic Outlook”.
There are several factors moulding the shape of the MENA region’s [...]

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With resources in the driver’s seat, it could be a bumpy ride

The Australian: THERE comes a point in every resources boom when the sector moves into the driver’s seat of the national economy.
In this most recent upswing, that happened this week as the resurgent resources sector was blamed in part for the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rise, credited with a spate of mining takeovers and cited [...]

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China’s credit curbs pose mounting risk to commodities

Telegraph:  The big global banks are quietly preparing for a slide in commodity prices over coming months as China clamps down on excess lending and the US Federal Reserve takes away the liquidity pot.
“We believe overheating risks in China are escalating,” said Michael Lewis, commodities chief at Deutsche Bank. “Heading into the second quarter, we [...]

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China mining industry made $50 billion worth of overseas M&A – People’s Daily Online

The Chinese mining industry has carried out overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion U.S. dollars in the last decade, according to statistics from Ernst & Young.
In 2008 and 2009, the industry’s mergers and acquisitions totaled 40 billion U.S. dollars, which accounts for 80 percent of the total number in the past 10 [...]

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Lower returns predicted from international mining giants

FORMER BHP Billiton chief executive Chip Goodyear predicts shareholder returns from international mining giants will fall in the next decade.
He says the global mining sector will fragment with entrants such as China’s state owned-enterprises forcing major miners to loosen their grip on individual commodities. But the man who steered the group to its position as [...]

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World Bank, Donors Take Long-Term View on Food Security

April 22, 2010-Across the globe, more than 1 billion people go to bed hungry each night—a number exacerbated by the 2007-08 food price crisis.
While the global price spike is abating, grain stocks remain low and food prices are forecast to be, on average, 10-20% higher through 2018, compared to the 1997 – 2006 average. Food [...]

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Investors Explore the Frontier Markets

Businessweek: This year the real action for risk-tolerant global investors is on the frontier.
The MSCI Barra Frontier Markets index tracks equities of 25 countries, including six in the Middle East that account for 55% of the index’s total market capitalization. Year-to-date as of Apr. 12, the Frontier Markets index was up 13.66% compared with a [...]

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As Asia rolls on, a new world order emerges

Asia’s economy is no longer hot, it’s scorching, a shift that will force policy makers in the region to be more aggressive in efforts to contain inflation.
Singapore’s monetary authority increased the value of the island nation’s currency yesterday after a government report showed gross domestic product expanded at a gravity-defying annual pace of 32.1 per [...]

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Eight of the 10 best-performing currencies are from emerging markets

NEW YORK TRADERS in currency options are showing that emerging economies have become safer relative to developed nations than at any time in almost two years.
Three-month implied volatility for the seven biggest developing country currencies fell to 10% in March compared with 11.4% for industrialised nations, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co indexes. The gap [...]

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Manufacturing Powers Growth in Emerging Markets

The revival of confidence among both consumers and corporations and the subsequent expansion in manufacturing have helped emerging-market economies to vault back to levels seen before the onset of the global financial crisis.
Manufacturing output and new orders growth in emerging-market economies recorded the highest expansion since the second quarter of 2004, according to the latest [...]

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China Gold Demand May Double Within Decade, WGC Says

March 29 Bloomberg — Gold consumption in China may double within the next 10 years, boosting prices as supplies fail to keep pace with booming demand from investors and the jewelry industry, the World Gold Council said.
“China has an insatiable appetite for gold, which looks likely to continue in an environment where domestic mine supply [...]

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India Cuts Road, Ports Investment Targets as Projects Delayed

March 23 (Bloomberg) — India, ranked below war-ravaged Ivory Coast and Sri Lanka for the quality of infrastructure, lowered its target for spending on roads and ports after failing to complete planned projects.
Projected investment in docks, cranes and wharves may reach 407 billion rupees ($8.9 billion) in the five years ending March 2012, half the [...]

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Russia jobless down, but economy still limping

MOSCOW, March 19 (Reuters) – Nearly 400,000 unemployed Russians found jobs last month, but the economy contracted as investment continued to fall and growth in retail sales and disposable incomes was very slow, data showed on Friday.
Russia’s economy started to recover from its first recession in a decade in the second half of last year, [...]

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Russian economy to grow faster than projected in 2010 – ministry

Russia’s economy could grow by as much as 4-4.5% in 2010 compared with the government’s forecast of 3-3.5%, an Economic Development Ministry official said on Tuesday.
“Our forecast for 2010 is moderately optimistic. We expect GDP to grow by 3-3.5% in 2010. Added to the third and fourth quarter growth of 2009, this could be as [...]

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Brazil’s economy adds record number of jobs in Feb

BRASILIA, March 17 (Reuters) – Brazil’s economy added jobs for the second straight month in February, creating a hefty 209,425 payroll positions as companies ramped up hiring amid a strong economic recovery, the government said on Wednesday.
The number was a record for the month of February, a holiday-shortened month because of annual Carnival festivities around [...]

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India To Achieve 8.5% Growth In Next Fiscal Year: PM

RTTNews - Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed confidence that Indias economy would grow by 8.5% during the next fiscal and would accelerate to 9% in the following year from an estimated growth of 7.2% this fiscal.
He said this while inaugurating the conference on “Building Infrastructure : Challenges and Opportunities” hosted by the Planning Commission in New Delhi [...]

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Reasons to sell out of emerging markets?

Look east for growth has been the mantra for many investors in recent months but there are mounting concerns that emerging markets face significant short-term headwinds.
CrossBorder Capital chief executive Michael Howell warns that a correction is ‘likely’ as volatility creeps up in the second half of the year and investors should instead be moving into [...]

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European Investment Funds Show Strong Start to 2010

European investment funds saw a strong start in 2010, with long-term funds enjoying a monthly level of net inflows unsurpassed in any single month of 2009, according to the Investment Fund Industry Fact Sheet for January, published today by the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA).
Low returns from money market funds and bank deposits, [...]

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Economic Recovery In U.K. To Remain Sluggish In 2010: CBI

The recovery in the U.K. economy is expected to remain sluggish during 2010, the Confederation of British Industry said on Monday.
In its latest economic forecast, the CBI said the economy will grow in the first two quarters of 2010, by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, and by a slightly faster 0.5% in the next two quarters. [...]

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India exports to China set to rise

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online) : Two of the world’s top emerging economies, India and China have agreed in principle to boost trade between them.
According to India’s Commerce Ministry, China has assured India that it would step up its imports from the country and also partner India in charting the Asian growth story.
China plans to invest [...]

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Chinese Demand Impact On Agri-Food Prices

The incremental demand for Agri-Food created by the largest migration of people in China into the middle class in all of history can be observed in the prices for Agri-Food. Chinese demand has changed the pricing environment for Agri-Food as has never been done in peace time. They now consume a quarter of the world’s [...]

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U.S. Stocks Outlook Is ‘Quite Positive’ for Legg Mason’s Miller

March 22 (Bloomberg) — Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said he has a “quite positive” outlook for U.S. stocks and favors technology and financial companies because of their valuations.
Technology companies are his largest holding because they are “very cheap,” said Miller, chief investment officer of U.S.-based Legg Mason Capital Management, with $16.9 billion in assets. [...]

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Institutions to target Asian equities

FT.com: Institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to Asia in 2010 even though many admit that they lack knowledge and expertise in the region, according to a survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Just a fifth of respondents think that the Asian growth story is over-hyped, with a similar minority believing that the region’s recovery [...]

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Gold Fundamentals Remain Strong – WGC

London, United Kingdom: Suggestions of a gold price ‘bubble’ do not take account of gold’s market fundamentals, which remain robust, said World Gold Council. The gold price has been building steadily for nine consecutive years, ending 2009 25% higher than on 31 December 2008 at US$1087.50/oz. The PM gold fix in London on Monday 1 [...]

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A Severe Energy Crisis Threatens Eastern Europe

A Severe Energy Crisis Threatens Eastern Europe
“The World Bank has warned that Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia will be threatened by a severe energy crisis in five or six years, if billion-dollar investments are not immediately made for tapping into new gas and oil sources, for retrofitting an ailing pipeline and for reducing waste [...]

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Beware the China bull – there’s still a long march ahead

It has long been said that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. That may still be true, but it is the health of its nearest rival that needs monitoring.
For the new mantra could soon be: when China gets a headache, the rest of the world suffers a migraine. [...]

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Bank’s Sentance sees some risk of double-dip – Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said he saw encouraging signs of a pick up in the UK and the world economy, but warned that there was still a risk that a financial shock could derail the recovery.
In an interview with CNBC broadcast on Friday, which largely reiterated a speech he gave [...]

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Improvement in global commercial property transactions set to accelerate in 2010, report shows

Worldwide commercial property transaction volumes began recovering in the second half of 2009 reversing a downward trend, according to the latest analysis from consultants Jones Lang LaSalle.
Its Global Real Estate Capital Flows Update expects the improvement to continue although it will be uneven. Overall analysts anticipate a 30 to 40% increase in direct commercial real [...]

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